SB 1511 Is Dead. Oregon's Estate Tax Fight Isn't.
The Oregon Legislature adjourned its 2026 session without passing estate tax reform. Here's what happened, what comes next, and what it means for Oregon families trying to plan.
Last week we published a post about SB 1511, the bill that would have nearly tripled Oregon's estate tax threshold from $1 million to $2.5 million. We noted it still needed to pass the House. It didn't.
The Oregon Legislature wrapped up its 2026 regular session, and SB 1511 died in the House Ways and Means Committee — not from a floor vote, but from the clock. The committee was pulled to the floor for other business and never reconvened. The bill expired without a vote.
So nothing has changed. Oregon's estate tax threshold is still $1 million, exactly where it's been since 2011.
What Actually Happened in Salem
The bill passed the Senate on a largely party-line vote. Democrats voted almost unanimously in favor. Five of twelve Republican senators voted yes; the rest voted no or were absent. That math tells you something about the politics involved.
There's also a procedural wrinkle worth noting. Oregon's constitution generally requires revenue bills to originate in the House, not the Senate. SB 1511 started in the Senate, which raised constitutional questions about whether the bill could have survived a legal challenge even if it had passed. Whether that concern was a factor in how the House handled it is hard to say, but it's not nothing — Oregon courts have struck down tax legislation on similar procedural grounds before.
What this looks like from the outside — and this is opinion, not established fact — is that Democratic senators wanted a voting record on estate tax reform heading into the November 2026 election, in a year when the issue may be on the ballot. Whether the bill was ever expected to become law is a separate question. Politics and policy don't always move in the same direction.
The Ballot Initiative in the Background
While SB 1511 was moving through Salem, a parallel effort was underway at the ballot box. Rep. Kevin Mannix, R-Salem, has been circulating a petition for an initiative called the "End the Death Tax Act," which would repeal Oregon's estate tax entirely for deaths after January 1, 2027. The initiative has a certified ballot title and would need approximately 117,000 valid voter signatures to appear on the November 2026 ballot.
Mannix's initiative and SB 1511 are very different proposals. SB 1511 would have raised the threshold and indexed it to inflation while increasing rates on larger estates — a revenue-neutral compromise. Mannix's initiative would eliminate the tax altogether, giving up the roughly $663 million per biennium the state currently collects from it.
Notably, Mannix also proposed a "gut and stuff" amendment to the House Revenue Committee that would have created a $2.5 million exemption with a flat 10% rate and added spousal portability — provisions quite different from his ballot initiative. That amendment didn't advance either.
Whether the repeal initiative will make it to the ballot remains uncertain. Signature-gathering campaigns require money and organization. Oregon voters rejected a similar estate tax repeal in 2012. And as one veteran Oregon estate attorney observed in a recent discussion, it may be harder to gather signatures to repeal a tax that most Oregon voters will never pay than it is to gather signatures against, say, a motor vehicle tax that everyone sees on their registration bill. That's not a legal prediction — it's a practical one.
What This Means for Your Estate Plan
For Oregon families, the practical answer is straightforward: plan for the law as it exists today, not as you might hope it becomes.
The $1 million threshold is still in effect. If your estate — home, retirement accounts, life insurance, business interests — exceeds that, Oregon estate tax is a real consideration. The inflation-indexed $2.5 million threshold in SB 1511 does not exist yet. The complete repeal Mannix is pursuing does not exist yet. Either could happen. Neither is guaranteed.
There are a few scenarios worth thinking through:
If your estate is currently between $1 million and $2.5 million: Your plan may well be built around minimizing or avoiding Oregon estate tax. If reform eventually passes — whether through legislation next session or a ballot measure in November — some of that planning complexity may become unnecessary. But "may become unnecessary" is not a reason to delay planning now or to make changes based on speculation. Review your plan on its current terms.
If your estate is above $2.5 million: The various reform proposals have ranged from revenue-neutral (SB 1511) to full repeal (Mannix initiative), with different rate structures in each. Until something actually passes, the planning tools that matter today — credit shelter trusts, ILITs, charitable strategies — remain the same.
If you don't yet have a plan: The uncertainty in Salem is not a reason to wait. The estate tax threshold could go up, stay flat, or disappear, but none of those possibilities changes the other reasons to have a plan: protecting your family, avoiding probate, naming the right people to make decisions for you, and making sure your wishes are actually carried out.
One Other Thing From the 2026 Session
Oregon's "kicker" — the constitutional provision that returns excess income tax revenue to individual filers when the state collects significantly more than it forecast — will deliver approximately $1.4 billion to Oregonians this year. To calculate your share, multiply your 2024 Oregon tax liability by 9.863%. On a $10,000 Oregon tax bill, that's roughly $986 back.
There was a proposal in the 2026 session (SJR 201) to redirect a portion of kicker amounts over $300 million toward education and wildfire prevention. It didn't pass. The kicker is among the most politically durable features of Oregon tax law — and one touches it at its own peril. The full kicker returns to filers as required under Article IX, Section 14(4) of the Oregon Constitution.
For estate planning purposes, a kicker refund is an asset — modest for most filers, but real. If you're doing cash flow planning, gift planning, or thinking about making contributions to an irrevocable trust this year, it's worth factoring in.
Bottom Line
Oregon's estate tax is unchanged after the 2026 session. Reform may come through the Legislature in 2027, through a November 2026 ballot measure, or not at all for several more years. Oregon families who need to plan around the $1 million threshold should do so based on the law today, with an eye toward reviewing their plans if and when the law changes.
We'll continue to track developments and update this post as the ballot initiative and next legislative session progress.
This post is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Some observations about legislative intent and political dynamics are opinion and should be read as such. Estate tax law is complex and fact-specific. Contact a licensed Oregon estate planning attorney to discuss your individual situation.
Questions about how Oregon's estate tax affects your plan? Contact Track Town Law to schedule a consultation.
